The Journal of Grey System ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 24-36.

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  • 出版日期:2025-04-20 发布日期:2025-05-29

The Generalized Grey Bass Model and Its Applications

  1. 1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, PR China
    2. Institute of Artificial Intelligence, De Montfort University, The Gateway, Leicester LE1 9BH, UK
  • Online:2025-04-20 Published:2025-05-29
  • Supported by:
    This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under grant 92367301 and 72171116, the
    Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under grant NK2023001, NP2024203 and "333 talent" project in Jiangsu Province (China), the Interdisciplinary Innovation Fund for Doctoral Students of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (KXKCXJJ202304), and Program of China Scholarship Council (Grant No.202206830146).

Abstract:

The grey Bass model serves as a valuable tool in forecasting time series portraying inverted U-shaped characteristics. However, the existing grey Bass model still has some issues in inaccuracies for the Cusum operator and the rationale behind selecting the initial value for parameter estimation. To improve the accuracy and applicability of the grey Bass model, the generalized grey Bass model is developed, incorporating the physics-preserving Cusum operator with second-order accuracy. Initially, the relationship between the generalized grey Bass and the traditional grey Bass models is elucidated via parameter transformation. Subsequently, opting for the first observation as the initial value is proven to be not only accurate but also a highly efficient strategy. Additionally, extensive simulations are conducted to compare both models in terms of robustness against discretization errors, measurement noise, and sample size. Finally, the generalized grey Bass model is applied to two real-world cases and evaluated against competitive models regarding accuracy and stability. Results demonstrate that the generalized grey Bass model exhibits superior precision and exceptional modeling performance.