The Journal of Grey System ›› 2022, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (1): 105-113.

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The Fractional Accumulative Time-Delay GM(1,N) Model and Its Application

  

  • Online:2022-03-01 Published:2022-05-15

Abstract: Aiming at the problem of modeling small sample systems with time-delay cumulative effects, this paper introduces a time-delay coefficient control term and a fractional cumulative generation operator. The paper also proposes a fractional accumulative time-delay GM (1,N) grey prediction model, using particle swarm optimization algorithm to determine the optimal time-lag effect control coefficient 𝜆 and the optimal fractional order r. Finally, combining the GDP, Fixed Asset Investment and General Public Budget Expenditure of Jiangsu province from 2013 to 2020 to establish a forecast model, and comparing the prediction results of the GM (1,1) and GM(1,N) model shows that The Fractional Accumulative Time-delay GM(1,N) model (FATGM(1,N)) can better solve the small sample multivariate with cumulative timedelay characteristics system prediction problem.