The Journal of Grey System ›› 2022, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4): 28-.

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A Novel Option Pricing Approach Using the Black-Scholes Model and Grey Forecasting Method 

  

  • Online:2022-12-25 Published:2022-12-29

Abstract:

China’s options market has developed rapidly since 2015, and options have become an important financial derivative. Accurate pricing of options is an important prerequisite for options hedging, risk management, and other functions. There is much uncertain information interference in the traditional option pricing process, which will cause large errors between the pricing result and the actual market delivery price: because grey system theory has a natural advantage in dealing with uncertain information, based on the classic Black–Scholes (B-S) option pricing model and grey forecasting method, a comprehensive option pricing B-S- RGM model is developed, and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF data in China are selected as a case for empirical analysis. The empirical results show that the proposed B-S-RGM model herein can mine the uncertain information in the process of option pricing. Compared with the classic B-S model, the B-S-RGM pricing model has more accurate pricing results. The average relative errors of the B-S models in Sample A and Sample B are 10.37% and 18.29%, respectively, while the average relative errors of the four B-S-RGM models are all stable and within 5%. In addition, the stability of the B-S-RGM model is discussed. The B-S option pricing model suffers from instability, with the pricing errors increasing in pricing intervals further from the expiration date while the B-S-RGM pricing model maintains a high degree of stability in pricing intervals both further and closer to maturity. The conclusions have important applications for option pricing, and can broaden the application scope of grey system theory. 

Key words: Option Pricing, B-S-RGM Model, Grey Forecasting Method, SSE 50ETF, Uncertain Information