Abstract: With economic and social development rapidly, carbon dioxide emission soared in the northwestern region. The importance of adopting emission reduction strategies cannot be overemphasized. Therefore, it is essential to accurately forecast carbon dioxide emission in northwestern China. The study used Lasso parameter estimation to select influential carbon dioxide emission features. FGM(1,1) model was used to forecast features trend. The adjacent accumulation grey multivariate convolution model (AGMC) model forecasts carbon dioxide emission trend. The future two years forecast result shows that Shaanxi province’s carbon dioxide emission will show a fluctuating trend. Qinghai autonomous regions will show a decreasing trend. Other regions will be in upward trend. The study suggests the central government should pay attention to the carbon emission problem in the northwestern region. Government increases science and technology investment and pays attention to urbanization spatial pattern rational layout. 

Key words: Northwestern China, Carbon Dioxide Emission, Grey Correlation Analyze, AGMC (1, n)