Abstract: It's necessary to forecast hydroelectric power generation under the background of carbon peak. Firstly, based on the three-parameter whitening grey prediction model, the order of the accumulating-fractional-order in the real field and the coefficients of the background value are combined and optimized to establish a two-parameter optimized three-parameter whitening grey prediction model. The model is applied to predict China's hydroelectric power generation, and the comprehensive error is only 1.13%, indicating that the model has good performance. The results show that the carbon peak target can be achieved by 2030. Based on this, relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.  

Key words: Grey Prediction, Three-parameter Whitening Prediction Model, Parameter Combination Optimization, Hydroelectric Power Generation