The Journal of Grey System ›› 2024, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (1): 4-15.

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Modeling and Predicting the Socio-Economic Performance of Countries Using Grey Relational Analysis and K-NN Algorithm

  

  1. 1. International Trade and Finance, Istanbul Aydin University, Istanbul, 34290, Turkey  2. Economy and Finance, Istanbul Aydin University, Istanbul, 34290, Turkey  3. Business, Istanbul Aydin University, Istanbul, 34290, Turkey 
  • Online:2024-02-01 Published:2024-03-07

Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to forecast the countries’ socio-economic performance with the fewest possible parameters. To do this, we propose a model consisting of methods from Multi-Criteria Decision Making and Machine Learning. Since the existence of different classifications of countries and several socioeconomic parameters, it becomes difficult to make a prediction of their belonging group and compare countries based on these parameters. Using the Grey Relational Analysis and the Critic method, we classify the countries into four different subgroups based on several socio-economic dimensions. K-Nearest Neighbor (K-NN) algorithm with basic macro-economic parameters is implemented to predict the countries' socioeconomic groups. The results rank the countries according to their socio-economic performance and predict the countries’ development levels for the future. The main findings indicated that the proposed approach can be used for similar research questions. The highest prediction percentages are accurate for small values of k. This study provides a convenient and effective method for grouping countries at different levels of development using basic economic parameters and provides a simple and practical method to predict the belonging group.  

Key words: Socio-economic parameters, Critic method, Grey relational analysis, K-NN algorithm