Abstract: Aiming at the risk of local obstruction or rupture in the operation process of the industry chain, a Grey-GERT network model of industry chain risk transmission is constructed based on the effect of input resources of each link of the industry chain, and the key links and their degree of risk in the process of industry chain network value transmission are identified and analysed to reveal the risk transmission mechanism of the industry chain. Finally, an empirical study is conducted on China’s integrated circuit industry chain to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model and to propose targeted control measures for the key links and their value transmission risks. The results show that the proposed model can effectively solve the problem of incomplete information on multiple transmission parameters in industry chain network activities, thoroughly analyse the risk transmission mechanism of the industry chain, and provide theoretical support for strengthening the risk control of the industry chain.

Key words: Chain risk, Grey-GERT network, Key links, Value transmission risk coefficients