The Journal of Grey System ›› 2024, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (5): 27-42.

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Seasonal Grey Forecasting Model Based on Damping Accumulation and Its Application

  

  1. 1. College of Information and Management Science, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, P.R. China   2. Hainan International College, Minzu University of China, Lingshui, 572423, P.R. China  
  • Online:2024-10-10 Published:2024-09-11
  • Supported by:
    This research is supported by the research on the mechanism of digital rural development enabling agricultural carbon productivity growth under the "dual carbon goals" of the Henan Provincial Soft Science Research Program project (N0.242400410173).  

Abstract: A new damping nonlinear grey multivariate seasonal forecasting power model DAFGM(1,N, , ) is proposed to solve the problem of small sample forecasting with seasonal, nonlinear, and uncertain system behavior characteristic sequence. Firstly, the seasonal moving filter is used to eliminate the seasonal characteristics of the original series. Then, according to the principle of "new information priority ", the damping accumulation coefficient is introduced, the unknown factors which are difficult to collect are simulated by introducing dummy variables, and a new seasonal forecasting model is constructed. Finally, the model is used to forecast the quarterly wind power generation in China. The results show that the model has good practicability and effectiveness.  

Key words: Grey multivariable forecasting , Seasonal moving filter , Damping accumulation , Nonlinear characteristics , Wind power generation