Abstract: Grey models are widely researched for system modelling and analysis. Considering the complexity of practical problems, grey models with both fractional and stochastic calculus can be used for mining the changing trend of the system with certain interference and uncertainty. For the simple expression and easier calculation of conformable fractional calculus, the conformable fractional stochastic grey model is proposed and discussed. The proposed model includes both random and deterministic factors, which can utilize the excellent characteristics of fractional and stochastic grey models. Several examples are used to test the performance of the proposed model. As a broader category model, conformable fractional stochastic grey one can integrate and expand the existing model with better physical meaning. The results show that new model has good performances in model analysis and short-term prediction. More novel models and application could be achieved for data mining, complex physical problems modelling and prediction.

Key words: Conformable Fractional-order Calculus, Stochastic Model, Grey Model, Prediction