The Journal of Grey System ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (6): 66-78.

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Forecasting ICT Service Export Trends Using Advanced Grey Models

  

  1. 1. Department of General Education, Dubai Medical University, United Arab Emirates
    2. Department of Business Administration, Bath Spa University Academic Center Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates
    3. School of Business Administration, Hunan University, Changsha, Hunan, 410082, P.R. China
    4. Institute for Grey Systems Studies, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 211106, P.R. China
    5. Jinshen College, Nanjing Audit University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210023, P.R. China
  • Online:2025-12-01 Published:2025-12-29
  • Supported by:
    Prof. Sifeng Liu’s foundational work in grey system theory significantly influenced the development of our approach to
    modeling ICT services exports. We are grateful for his early mentorship and discussions, which helped shape and motivate this research.

Abstract: The study aimed to forecasts the future trends of information and communication technology (ICT) service exports in the United States of America (USA), China, India, and. By using the data obtained from the world bank, the study compares classical time series model that is exponential triple smoothing (ETS) with advanced grey-models including DGM(1,1,α), EGM(1,1), EGM(1,1,α,θ). ICT services are projected to be exponential in case of China and India, whereas for the USA, growth is projected to be approximately linear. EGM (1,1,α,θ) demonstrated superior performance in all three countries, as confirmed by the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The additional parameters α and θ are likely to enable a more accurate representation of the underlying pattern in data, particularly in cases with significant fluctuations in data. The results have important implications for strategic planning in the digital infrastructure.

Key words: Forecasting, Information and Communication Technology, China, India, United States, Grey Models