The Journal of Grey System ›› 2026, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 29-42.

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Complex Order Damped Cumulative GM(1,1) Model Applied to Oil Trade

  

  1. 1. College of Mathematics, Northwest University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710127, P.R. China

    2. School of Information and Mathematics, Yangtze University, Jingzhou, Hubei, 434000, P.R. China

  • Online:2026-04-01 Published:2026-06-08

Abstract: In this study, the complex-order damping accumulated GM(1,1) model (CDAGMz(1,1)) and the complex-order damping accumulated discrete GM(1,1) model (CDADGMz(1,1)) are based on the damping accumulated generating operator and the complex-order accumulated generating operator. By expanding the parameter value range from the real domain to the complex domain, these two new models can better balance the weighting between new and old information, extract more effective features from limited data, and enhance the model accuracy. The relationship between the two models and their respective application scopes was also clarified. An empirical analysis is conducted using China's oil import and export volumes from 2012 to 2024 as the research subject, verifying the applicability and effectiveness of the new models in predicting oil import and export volumes and predicting the oil import and export volumes from 2025 to 2027.