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Table of Content

    01 June 2022, Volume 34 Issue 2
    Carbon Emission Prediction Method of Regional Logistics Industry Based on Improved GM(1, N) Model
    Xueqiang Guo, Bingjun Li
    2022, 34(2):  1-9. 
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    Aiming at the poor prediction performance of the traditional GM(1,N) model, this paper proposes the GM(1,N) model with expression optimization: firstly, unknown parameters are introduced into the coefficient matrix of the traditional GM(1,N) model to obtain the model expression with unknown parameters; Then the average relative error function with unknown parameters is constructed; Finally, the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to obtain the parameter column with the smallest average relative error. Taking the carbon emission of the logistics industry in Hubei Province as an example, this paper forecasts the carbon emission by using the traditional GM(1,N) model, GM(1, N) model with background value optimization, and GM(1, N) model with expression optimization. By comparing and analyzing the prediction results of the three models, it is concluded that GM(1,N) model with expression optimization has better prediction performance.
    Criticality Analysis of Degrading Components in the Context of Uncertainty
    Qi Li, Sifeng Liu, Yingsai Cao, Zhigeng Fang
    2022, 34(2):  10-21. 
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    A novel approach to measuring the criticality of degradation components is proposed in this paper to specify the contributions with regard to the decline of system reliability. Firstly, linguistic variables which are expressed by fuzzy set with grey number elements are introduced to assess the reliability of degrading components. Then the reliability of system is obtained based on structure functions. Thirdly, the cooperative game theory is employed to explore how a specific degrading component contributes to the degradation of system reliability in the context of uncertainty. The operations of fuzzy set and grey number are both used to obtain the component criticality. At last, an illustrative example about a newly-developed exoskeleton robot is presented to demonstrate that the proposed method is more rational and effective on measuring the criticality of components in the context of uncertainty.

    Hyper-Spectral Estimation Model of Soil Organic Matter Based on Generalized Greyness of Grey Number

    Wenjing Ren, Xican Li, Jieya Liu, Tianzi Ding
    2022, 34(2):  22-40. 
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    Due to the complexity of society and the high degree of uncertainty of the issues faced, precise numbers are, in many cases, difficult to describe their nature. And to deal with the problem that the existing interval grey number distance method does not reflect the characteristics of interval grey number well. This paper introduces a distance entropy to assign different weights to the upper and lower bounds and the kernel. To prevent the extreme value bias of the grey correlation coefficients, we propose a relative weight to constrain the extreme values. Considering the loss aversion of decision-makers, an extended TODIM is proposed, which combines the corresponding gains and losses to obtain the perceived dominance degree. From the method proposed in this paper, the perceived dominance degree is established to provide the ranking of the decision alternatives. A case of selecting an artillery weapon for a certain unit is used to validate the proposed method, followed by a comparative analysis.

    A Grey Correlation Method-Based Interval Grey Number TODIM Multi-attribute Decision Making Method
    Qiuhong Zheng, Quanyu Ding, Yingming Wang
    2022, 34(2):  41-58. 
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    To overcome the uncertainty in the spectral estimation of soil organic matter, the hyper-spectral estimation model of soil organic matter content is established using grey system theory. Firstly, after introducing the generalized greyness of grey number, the properties of the generalized greyness are analyzed. Secondly, the modeled samples are ranked in the smallest to the largest in terms of soil organic matter content, the moving variance of the ranked estimators is calculated, the greyness of the lower, value and upper domains of the estimators is calculated based on the moving variance, and the new estimators are constructed based on the greyness. The estimation model of soil organic matter content is built and the estimation accuracy of the model is evaluated using the mean relative error and the determination coefficient. Finally, the model is applied to estimate soil organic matter content in Zhangqiu District of Jinan, Shandong Province. The results show that the generalized greyness of grey number can effectively represent the interval grey number, reduce the random error and grey uncertainty of the estimation factor, and the accuracy of the proposed estimation model and test accuracy are significantly improved, where the determination coefficient R2 = 0.929 and the mean relative error MRE = 6.830% for the 12 test samples. The results further enrich the grey system theory, and provide a new way to modify the estimation factors and improve the spectral estimation accuracy of soil organic matter.

    Multi-attribute Decision Analysis on Three-Parameter Interval Grey Number Based on Bell-Shaped Possibility
    Fenyi Dong, Linlin Wu, Huanhuan Liu, Han Shen, Zhenjie Zhai
    2022, 34(2):  59-74. 
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    Aiming at the multi-attribute decision-making problem of three-parameter interval grey number with completely unknown attribute weights and unknown attribute values of upper and lower limits and “center of gravity” points, a multiattribute grey target decision-making method with bell-shaped three-parameter interval grey number attribute values is proposed. Firstly, the three-parameter interval grey number with bell-shaped is constructed, and the possibility of the upper and lower limits and “center of gravity” points are discussed, and a new distance measure formula of the three-parameter interval grey number is defined. Secondly, according to the principle of maximum entropy, the objective programming model is constructed to determine the attribute weight. Then, the schemes are sorted according to the size of the comprehensive bull’s-eye distance. Finally, taking the rank of the possibility of ice jam disaster in the three reaches of the Yellow River as an example, shows that the model has more practical significance.
    A Grey Incidence Model for Panel Data Based on the Curvature of Discrete Surface
    Honghua Wu , Zhongfeng Qu
    2022, 34(2):  75-87. 
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    To determine the relationship between panel data, a grey incidence analysis model based on the curvature of the discrete surface, namely the grey discrete curvature incidence model (GDCI), is proposed in this paper. Firstly, panel data are projected as discrete triangular surfaces. Secondly, based on the Mean curvature and the Gauss curvature of the discrete surface, the coefficient formulae of grey incidence of the Mean curvature and the Gauss curvature are respectively constructed. Then, two grey incidence models based on the Mean curvature and the Gauss curvature are established, respectively. Subsequently, a grey incidence model is proposed based on the curvature of discrete surfaces for panel data. The properties of the proposed model, e.g., normality, symmetry, similarity, and invariance to translation, are also discussed. Finally, both a numerical example and a practical example are given to illustrate the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed model. These examples also indicate that the proposed model can reflect the relationship between the panel data.
    A Novel Grey Multi-Dimensional Taylor Network Scheme for Nonlinear Time Series Prediction in Industrial Systems
    Chenlong Li, Xiaoshuang Ma, Changshun Yuan, Bingqiang Wang, Chen Liu, Feng Wang, Wenliang Chen
    2022, 34(2):  88-107. 
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    A novel grey multi-dimensional Taylor network (MTN) scheme for nonlinear time series prediction in industrial systems is proposed in this paper. First, we construct the grey MTN model: 1) the GM(1,1) model is used to gain the prediction value and as a group of inputs for the MTN prediction model, which improves the prediction accuracy; 2) we take the MTN model as the prediction model and the conjugate gradient (CG) method as its learning algorithm. Second, the variational mode decomposition (VMD) method is used as data preprocessing for inputs of the prediction model, and the processed data are normalised. Finally, the actual prediction values are obtained by reverse normalization processing. Industrial examples are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme. The experimental results show that the proposed prediction scheme is effective. Meanwhile, compared with other schemes, the proposed scheme improves the prediction accuracy and performance considerably.
    Innovation Ability of Strategic Emerging Industrial Cluster Based on 2-Mode Network and Three-Dimensional Grey Correlation Model
    Si Jing, Lirong Jian
    2022, 34(2):  108-121. 
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    Due to the strategic emerging industrial cluster includes different types of subjects, their interaction will affect the industrial economy and innovation capacity. According to the data of strategic emerging enterprises, this paper constructs the economic 2-mode network and innovative 2-mode network composed of the strategic emerging industries and regions, respectively, according to the main business income and the number of effective patents of enterprises. Using the centrality of social network analysis to measure the structural characteristics of the 2-mode network, this paper analyzes the development status and evolution trend of strategic emerging industrial clusters. Then the three-dimensional grey correlation model is used to evaluate the innovation ability of each region with strategic emerging industrial clusters. Finally, an empirical study is carried out with Jiangsu province's strategic emerging industrial cluster as a typical case. The results show that: (1)The new generation of informational technology, biological industry, and high-end equipment manufacturing industry all have high centrality in the network, and they are located in an important position in the network. It shows that these three industries have strong economic effects and innovation ability and have a strong ability to control inter-enterprise and inter-regional informational transfer, while the digital creative industry has low centrality and is still in its initial stage located at the edge of the network. (2) The network centrality of Nanjing and Suzhou has always ranked first and second, indicating that these two regions have the highest influence on the network. The strategic emerging industrial clusters of Nanjing and Suzhou are relatively well-developed, and the innovation and economy have formed a positive interaction effect in these industrial clusters. (3) The innovation ability of strategic emerging industrial clusters in Suzhou, Wuxi, and Nanjing is relatively strong, while the innovation ability of strategic emerging industrial clusters in Taizhou and Yancheng is relatively weak. There is a great difference between southern Jiangsu and northern Jiangsu.
    Use Grey Incidence Analysis to Explore the Impact and Control of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Guangdong Province
    Xiaowei Zhang, Xiaoyi He, Zidan Yang, Kaiting Zhang, Yandong Luo, Shangmin Chen, Liping Li
    2022, 34(2):  122-135. 
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    The hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemic has become a serious public health problem worldwide with a high economic and health burden. In addition, the prevalence of HFMD varies greatly between cities. Therefore, this paper aims to reveal high-risk cities for HFMD and associated meteorological and air pollution factors in Guangdong Province during 2014-2018. Data on the incidence of HFMD and meteorological and air pollution factors were obtained from the Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention and Guangdong Meteorological Service. Three different grey incidence analysis (GIA) were used, namely Deng’s grey incidence analysis, absolute degree of GIA, and second synthetic degree of GIA. Additionally, GM(1,1) model was used to predict the trend of HFMD in 2019-2028. According to the second synthetic degree of GIA, the top three cities most affected by HFMD are Zhuhai, Guangzhou, and Foshan. However, the prediction model found that the incidence of HFMD in Guangdong Province will generally decline in the next 10 years, indicating that the prevention and control measures are still relatively in place. Deng’s grey incidence analysis found that CO, SO2, PM2.5, PM10, and wind scale are closely related to the incidence of HFMD. It is recommended to closely monitor weather change and urban air quality and take protective measures against HFMD in advance. The results of this study have substantial implications for the control of HFMD.
    An Improved Algorithm of Interval Grey Number
    Li Li, Xican Li
    2022, 34(2):  136-152. 
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    Aiming at the limitations of the algorithm of interval grey number, an improved algorithm is introduced in this paper. Firstly, the limitations of the algorithm of interval grey number are analyzed, such as irreversibility, virtual amplification, and non-closure. Then, according to the "using minimum information principle" and the algorithm of a real number and its internal requirements, an improved algorithm of interval grey number is given, and some properties of the improved algorithm of interval grey number are discussed. Finally, some examples are given to verify the effectiveness of the new algorithm. The results show that the improved algorithm of interval grey number overcomes the limitations of the existing algorithm, and the calculation examples show that the improved algorithm is feasible and effective. The research results further enrich the grey system theory and provide a theoretical basis for studying grey algebra.