Abstract: The regional digital economy security risk warning system has been established to strengthen the construction of safety shields for the regional digital economy and promote the sound and steady development of the digital economy. Based on the PEST analysis method, a regional digital economy security risk evaluation index system including four first-level indicators, 13 second-level indicators, and 49 third-level indicators are constructed. The index weight is determined by CRITIC method, the regional digital economy security risk index (DESRI) is established by integrated operation, and the prediction and early warning are realized by EGM(1,1) model. Through the data collection and empirical analysis of Shaanxi Province, it is found that: (1) The DESRI of Shaanxi Province showed an overall rising trend from 2017 to 2020, but the risk level was reduced from dangerous to a general level; (2) In 2021 and 2022, the security risk of the digital economy in Shaanxi Province is generally at the security level, among which the policy risk index and social risk index were at the security level, the economic risk index was in the serious level and the crisis level respectively, and the technical risk index was in the crisis level. The results of the empirical analysis verify the feasibility and effectiveness of PEST·CRITIC-EGM(1,1) Method, which can be used for the assessment and early warning of regional digital economy risks.

Key words: Digital Economy, Security Risk, PEST Analysis, CRITIC Method, EGM(1,1)