The Journal of Grey System ›› 2024, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (2): 1-12.

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A Conformable Fractional Non-homogeneous Grey Forecasting Model with Adjustable Parameters CFNGMA(1,1,k,c) and its Application 

  

  1. 1. School of Science, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Deyang, Sichuan, 618307, P.R. China  2. School of Mathematics and Physics, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, Sichuan, 621010, P.R. China  3. College of Business Planning, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing, 400067, P.R. China
  • Online:2024-02-01 Published:2024-04-09

Abstract: The inconsistency between the whitening differential equation and the grey basic form of the non-homogeneous continuous grey model CFNGM(1,1,k,c) will result in internal errors. Thus this paper proposes a CFNGMA(1,1,k,c) model with adjustable parameters, which improves the accuracy of the CFNGM(1,1,k,c). This paper first elucidates reasons for the internal errors generated by the continuous grey model CFNGM(1,1,k,c), and explains the classic method, the discrete grey forecasting model, of eliminating internal errors. On the basis of an in-depth analysis of the modeling mechanism of CFNGM(1,1,k,c) model, a new parameter adjustable grey forecasting model is proposed by introducing parameter adjustment factors to modify model’s parameters. Finally, the new model is applied to explore the gross regional product of Chengdu and Deyang in the Chengdu metropolitan area. The calculation results indicate that the newly proposed model can obtain more accurate results. 

Key words: Adjustable parameters, Conformable fractional order, Grey forecasting model, Chengdu metropolitan area, Gross regional product