Abstract: The development of complex equipment has the feature of "main manufacturer-supplier", with a large amount of underlying data and a small amount of top-level data for reliability growth. This paper firstly introduces the basic model of reliability growth. For small samples and uncertain of complex equipment, Bayesian methods and grey system theory have also been investigated. It has been found that existing research cannot describe this distributed collaborative network and the inherent mechanism of reliability growth, and the information data of reliability growth had not been fully utilized. This paper proposes a new model that combines Bayesian and GERT networks. This model is suitable for evaluating the reliability growth process in collaborative development networks, and can make full use of supplier information, historical information, and experimental information to comprehensively evaluate the reliability growth. Through case analysis of the flight control system, it is proven that the new model performs well in comprehensively utilizing various types of information.  

Key words:  , Collaborative network, Reliability growth, Gompertz model, Bayesian