The Journal of Grey System ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (1): 96-107.

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A Novel Time-varying Non-homogeneous Discrete Grey Model and Its Application in Forecasting Solar Energy Generation in Total North America 

  

  1. 1. School of Business, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province 214122, P.R. China  2. Faculty of Big Data Artificial Intelligence, Anhui Institute of Information Technology, Wuhu 241000, China  3. Faculty of Management Engineering, Anhui Institute of Information Technology, Wuhu 241000, China  
  • Online:2025-01-18 Published:2025-01-18
  • Supported by:
    The research reported was partially supported by National Social Science Fund later funded projects(23FGLB051), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71871106), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (JUSRP1809ZD; 2019JDZD06; JUSRP321016), Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX23_2452), Anhui Province young and middle-aged teachers training action project (YQYB2023089), Anhui Province Scientific Research Preparation Plan Project (2023AH052906), Special projection scientific and technological ethics (scientific research integrity) of Jiangsu Provincial Social Science Applied Research Excellent Project (24SLA-01), the Major Projects of Philosophy and Social Science Research of Guizhou Province (21GZZB32), Project of Chinese Academic Degrees and Graduate Education (2020ZDB2), Major research project of the 14th FiveYear Plan for Higher Education Scientific Research of Jiangsu Higher Education Association (ZDGG02), the University Natural Science Research Project of Anhui province (KJ2020A0823), Special Research Project on Education Digitalization by the Ministry of Education (CSDP24LF1G402); 2021 Wuxi Science and Technology Association key topics (KX-21-C025) ； Key Project in Philosophy and Social Science of Wuxi (WXSK24-A06), International Joint Research Laboratory for Artificial Forecasting and Decision Making Optimization at Jiangnan University, 2024 Wuxi Soft Science Research Project (KX-24- A12), 2024 Wuxi Philosophy and Social Sciences Research Project (Special Program for Social Education Development) (WXSK24- JY-A01).  

Abstract: Accurate forecasting of solar energy generation in total North America is crucial for effective energy planning and environmental protection. However, challenges arise from the limited and complex nature of the data. This paper introduces a novel Time-Varying Non-Homogeneous Discrete Grey Model (TVNDGM(1,1)) to address these challenges. The model introduces an anti-forgetting accumulated generating operator as the weight accumulation function to effectively prioritize new information. Additionally, it extends the homogeneous discrete grey model into a non-homogeneous format, enhancing model adaptability to various samples. Applying the Whale Optimization Algorithm in selecting non-structural parameters further improves accuracy. Case study results demonstrate that the model achieves fitting and test errors of 2.28% and 1.65%, respectively, outperforming seven other methods, thus indicating superior predictive accuracy and stability. Forecasts suggest that from 2024 to 2030, solar energy generation in total North America will continue to rise, with an average annual growth rate of 20.31%. This study enriches the theory of new information prioritization within grey forecasting methods and provides technological support for global energy planning and development.