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                        			An Unbiased Grey Model Based on Euler Polynomial and Its Application 
in China's Primary Energy Production
                        		
                        	
                        	
                        	
                        	 Shuliang Li, Ying Wang, Ruifeng Zheng, Wei Meng, Dajin Zeng 
                            
	                            The Journal of Grey System   
	                            
		                            2025, 37 (2): 
		                            1-15.   
	                            
	                            	
                             
                            
	                            
	                            
	                            
	                            	A key property of grey prediction models is their unbiased nature, which focuses on eliminating discontinuity between differencing and 
differentiation during their construction. Meanwhile, an unbiased proof is required to ensure this property. In this paper, an unbiased 
EDGM(1,1) model incorporating Euler polynomials is constructed. Firstly, this model integrates Euler polynomials and a time 
disturbance parameter into the classical GM(1,1) model, enabling this EDGM(1,1) model to flexibly handle sequences with various data 
characteristics. Subsequently, the difference and its discrete forms are derived, and the latter is then solved using the least squares 
method and mathematical induction. Then the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is implemented to improve the model's 
parameters. Secondly, the compatibility of the EDGM(1,1) model is demonstrated, and its unbiasedness towards three characteristic 
sequences is proven based on Cramer's rule. Finally, the performance of the EDGM(1,1) model is evaluated comprehensively against 
five competing models using three metrics: MAPE, RMSE, and R². The comparative analysis shows that the EDGM(1,1) model 
outshines other models in robustness and accuracy. Furthermore, the novel model is designed to forecast China's primary energy outputs, 
aiming to provide references for energy policies and decision-making. 
	                             
	                            
		                            
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