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A Framework of Grey Prediction Models on China's Population Aging Under the Perspective of Regional Differences  Weiliang Zhang, Sifeng Liu, Junliang Du, Lianyi Liu, Xiaojun Guo, Zurun Xu The Journal of Grey System    2022, 34 (4): 1-.   Abstract （359）            Knowledge map    Population aging is a major social problem that China is facing. Scientific prediction and correct analysis of population aging are important for resource allocation, policy formulation, and service provision. To this end, this paper proposes a population prediction framework based on grey models to predict and analyze regional differences in China's aging status. Firstly, we construct three indicators, i.e., total population, aged population, and proportion of the aged population, to reflect the aging status of a region. Secondly, we develop a grey model framework to predict and analyze aging differences in the eastern, central, and western regions of China. Finally, according to the prediction and analysis results of the three aging indicators, we suggest some corresponding countermeasures to address the challenges of China's future aging problem. Related Articles | Metrics

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Improved Fractional Order Single Optimization Parameter Grey Model Jiangtao Wei, Yonghong Wu The Journal of Grey System    2023, 35 (4): 154-171.   Abstract （245）            Knowledge map    Some grey prediction models suffer from outliers and overfitting, and their prediction performance can be improved. Based on the fractional grey model (FGM) and the fractional time delayed grey model (FTDGM), an improved fractional single optimization parameter grey model (IFSGM) is proposed in this paper. A timetranslation power term is used to reduce model overfitting. The data is pre-processed to reduce the influence of outliers based on data transformation in cumulants and summations. The convolutional computational formulation is used to perform the prediction and improve the prediction effect. The genetic optimization algorithm is used to optimize the order of the fractional cumulants, find the optimal value of the order, and improve the model fit and prediction effect. In 6 data sets, the IFSGM and the 7 grey models are compared and tested. The experimental results show that IFSGM achieves excellent prediction performance.  Related Articles | Metrics

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A Vetoed Multi-objective Grey Target Decision Model with Application in Supplier Choice  Baoan Huang, Jianjun Miao, Qingsheng Li The Journal of Grey System    2022, 34 (4): 15-.   Abstract （173）            Knowledge map    A vetoed multi-attribute grey target decision method is proposed and demonstrated with a practical case study. Firstly, a classical multi-objective grey target decision model is introduced, then a veto function is defined with a hesitant region, which can accommodate some vagueness in the decision maker’s specification of this level to reject a scheme. Secondly, a vetoed synthetic effect measure matrix is obtained based on the veto function and the uniform effect measure. Finally, the proposed model is applied to a supplier selection problem for official vehicles. The decision method proposed in this study, which is expressed by the vetoed synthetic effect measure, is reasonable and useful in decision-making practice.  Related Articles | Metrics

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A Novel Logistic Multivariate Grey Prediction Model for Energy Consumption: A case study of China Coal  Sihao Chen, Yongshan Liu, Huiming Duan The Journal of Grey System    2023, 35 (4): 132-153.   Abstract （170）            Knowledge map    Coal consumption plays a pivotal role in the national economic growth, and the coal-based energy supply system as the main guarantee of China's energy is impossible to change in the short term. In order to ensure the security of China's energy supply, accurate coal consumption forecast can provide important theoretical basis for the development of scientific and effective energy planning and decision-making. Starting from the classical Logistic model, this paper introduces a variety of related factors such as energy consumption, economic growth rate and carbon dioxide emission growth rate to expand the modeling objects of the Logistic model and improve the performance of the model by relying on its ability to capture the historical trend of the data model and accurately predict the future value. At the same time, a new logistic multivariate grey prediction model of energy consumption is established by introducing the principle of grey variance information organically combined with the logistic model. The modeling steps of the model are obtained by using mathematical methods such as least squares estimation of parameters and number multiplication transformation. Finally, the new model is applied to the prediction of Chinese coal consumption, and the validity of the model is verified from different perspectives of three cases, showing that the fitted and predicted data of the new model have good consistency with the actual results. The new model has a high accuracy for China's coal short-term forecast, and uses simulation and prediction effects of 1.68220% and 1.29866%, respectively, to effectively forecast China's coal consumption in 2022-2026, and points out the development trend of Chinese coal consumption, and provides a basis for China to make scientific and effective energy planning and decision-making. Related Articles | Metrics

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A Novel Option Pricing Approach Using the Black-Scholes Model and Grey Forecasting Method  Xuemei Li, Hang Wang, Yun Cao The Journal of Grey System    2022, 34 (4): 28-.   Abstract （165）            Knowledge map    China’s options market has developed rapidly since 2015, and options have become an important financial derivative. Accurate pricing of options is an important prerequisite for options hedging, risk management, and other functions. There is much uncertain information interference in the traditional option pricing process, which will cause large errors between the pricing result and the actual market delivery price: because grey system theory has a natural advantage in dealing with uncertain information, based on the classic Black–Scholes (B-S) option pricing model and grey forecasting method, a comprehensive option pricing B-S- RGM model is developed, and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF data in China are selected as a case for empirical analysis. The empirical results show that the proposed B-S-RGM model herein can mine the uncertain information in the process of option pricing. Compared with the classic B-S model, the B-S-RGM pricing model has more accurate pricing results. The average relative errors of the B-S models in Sample A and Sample B are 10.37% and 18.29%, respectively, while the average relative errors of the four B-S-RGM models are all stable and within 5%. In addition, the stability of the B-S-RGM model is discussed. The B-S option pricing model suffers from instability, with the pricing errors increasing in pricing intervals further from the expiration date while the B-S-RGM pricing model maintains a high degree of stability in pricing intervals both further and closer to maturity. The conclusions have important applications for option pricing, and can broaden the application scope of grey system theory.  Related Articles | Metrics

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A Self-Adaptive Grey DBSCAN Clustering Method Shizhan Lu, Longsheng Cheng, Zudi Lu, Qifa Huang, Bilal Ahmed Khan The Journal of Grey System    2022, 34 (4): 90-.   Abstract （151）            Knowledge map    Clustering analysis, as a classical issue in data mining, is widely applied in various research areas. This article proposes a self-adaptive grey DBSCAN (SAG-DBSCAN) clustering algorithm by introducing a grey relational matrix to obtain the grey local density indicator. We then apply this local indicator to have self-adaptive noise identification to gain a dense subset of the clustering data set. An advantage of this algorithm is that it can automatically estimate the parameters utilized to cluster the dense subset. Several frequently-used data sets are further examined to compare the performance and effectiveness of our proposed clustering algorithm with those of other state-of-the-art algorithms. The comparisons indicate that our new method outperforms other common methods.  Related Articles | Metrics

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A New Optimized Grey Forecasting Model with Polynomial Term and Its Application An Wang, Yaoguo Dang, Junjie Wang The Journal of Grey System    2024, 36 (3): 74-85.   Abstract （141）            Knowledge map    China’s total energy consumption and production rank first in the world. However, China’s energy structure is not reasonable. Therefore, accurate prediction of future energy trends is of great significance for the Chinese government to adjust the energy structure. In this paper, we propose an optimized Grey Euler model with polynomial term, which is abbreviated as OSGEM(1,1,N), to forecast the total energy consumption and production of China in comparison with the commonly used prediction models. The data from 2002 to 2018 are used to simulate the parameters in the proposed model, and the data from 2019 to 2021 are used to test the improved approach. The results show that the OSGEM(1,1,N) model outperforms the other models. Finally, the OSGEM(1,1,N) model is used to forecast the total energy consumption of China from 2022 to 2025 and different results from the previous research results have been obtained.   Related Articles | Metrics

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Modeling and Predicting the Socio-Economic Performance of Countries Using Grey Relational Analysis and K-NN Algorithm Hande Hakan, Ecem Coşar Canlıer, Çiğdem Özarı, Esin Nesrin Can The Journal of Grey System    2024, 36 (1): 4-15.   Abstract （136）            Knowledge map    The main purpose of this study is to forecast the countries’ socio-economic performance with the fewest possible parameters. To do this, we propose a model consisting of methods from Multi-Criteria Decision Making and Machine Learning. Since the existence of different classifications of countries and several socioeconomic parameters, it becomes difficult to make a prediction of their belonging group and compare countries based on these parameters. Using the Grey Relational Analysis and the Critic method, we classify the countries into four different subgroups based on several socio-economic dimensions. K-Nearest Neighbor (K-NN) algorithm with basic macro-economic parameters is implemented to predict the countries' socioeconomic groups. The results rank the countries according to their socio-economic performance and predict the countries’ development levels for the future. The main findings indicated that the proposed approach can be used for similar research questions. The highest prediction percentages are accurate for small values of k. This study provides a convenient and effective method for grouping countries at different levels of development using basic economic parameters and provides a simple and practical method to predict the belonging group.   Related Articles | Metrics

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A Grey Relational Analysis Method for Structural Stability Sensitivity of Cable-Suspended Camera Robots Including Presence of Cable Mass  Peng Liu, Xuhui Zhang, Xinzhou Qiao, Yuanying Qiu The Journal of Grey System    2022, 34 (4): 47-.   Abstract （129）            Knowledge map    A cable-suspended camera robot with a large workspace is employed to realize mobile photographs, while the large-span cables with unilateral driving properties introduce many new challenges that need to be addressed, whose structural stability is one of the most critical challenges. As a result, this paper first presents a stability measure method for camera robots while considering the cable mass and sags. Moreover, a stability sensitivity evaluation model for the robot is established with grey relational degree, where the relationship between the stability of the robot and the influencing factors (the cable tensions and the positions of the camera platform) is explored. Finally, the proposed models are supported by doing some simulation studies on a cable-suspended camera robot. The results show that the cable sags of the large-span cables have significant effects on both the cable tensions and the structural stability of the robot, while the stability sensitivity evaluation results indicate the cable tensions have a more important influence on the stability of the camera robot than the positions of the camera platform.  Related Articles | Metrics

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A Conformable Fractional Non-homogeneous Grey Forecasting Model with Adjustable Parameters CFNGMA(1,1,k,c) and its Application  Wenqing Wu , Xin Ma , Bo Zeng , Peng Zhang The Journal of Grey System    2024, 36 (2): 1-12.   Abstract （121）            Knowledge map    The inconsistency between the whitening differential equation and the grey basic form of the non-homogeneous continuous grey model CFNGM(1,1,k,c) will result in internal errors. Thus this paper proposes a CFNGMA(1,1,k,c) model with adjustable parameters, which improves the accuracy of the CFNGM(1,1,k,c). This paper first elucidates reasons for the internal errors generated by the continuous grey model CFNGM(1,1,k,c), and explains the classic method, the discrete grey forecasting model, of eliminating internal errors. On the basis of an in-depth analysis of the modeling mechanism of CFNGM(1,1,k,c) model, a new parameter adjustable grey forecasting model is proposed by introducing parameter adjustment factors to modify model’s parameters. Finally, the new model is applied to explore the gross regional product of Chengdu and Deyang in the Chengdu metropolitan area. The calculation results indicate that the newly proposed model can obtain more accurate results.  Related Articles | Metrics

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An Optimized Multivariate Grey Bernoulli Model for Forecasting Fossil Energy Consumption in China   Ye Li , Dongyu Liu, Meidan Xiao, Bin Liu The Journal of Grey System    2024, 36 (2): 67-78.   Abstract （117）            Knowledge map    Given the increasing severity of energy shortages, the exploration of effective strategies to optimize energy structures has become imperative. This requires careful consideration of energy consumption patterns, especially since these data are fundamental inputs for policy formulation. Given the uncertainty in the rate of change in energy consumption, this paper proposes an optimized multivariable grey Bernoulli model that is rooted in the grey Bernoulli model and incorporates background values and genetic algorithms. The grey Bernoulli model effectively linearizes nonlinear problems, thus simplifying computational procedures. In addition, to account for random fluctuations of relevant factors that may affect the model's predictions, this model introduces nonlinear correction terms that allow simulation and prediction values to adhere to the grey index law. The incorporation of background values enhances the model's ability to process information, providing it with a superior grasp of real data. Genetic algorithms can be used to refine the model's parameters, increasing its adaptability and precision. Finally, this paper applies the refined model to examine China's energy consumption patterns, validating its efficacy and versatility. Furthermore, energy consumption patterns for the next four years are forecast, with the analysis revealing that the growth rate of energy consumption from 2021 to 2024 shows a downward trend, particularly notable in 2024, where the growth rate is 1.64%.  Related Articles | Metrics

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Some Properties of Generalized Whiteness of Interval Grey Number Li Li, Xican Li The Journal of Grey System    2024, 36 (3): 25-36.   Abstract （114）            Knowledge map    In order to mine the intrinsic information of interval grey number, the concept of the generalized whiteness of interval grey number is first given in this paper based on the generalized greyness of interval grey number. Then the static and dynamic properties of generalized whiteness on bounded background domain, infinite background domain and infinitesimal background domain are analyzed, and the concepts of the extreme white system and extreme white spot are given. Finally, the conservation law of the generalized whiteness of interval grey numbers is given, and the generalized whiteness is applied to the ranking of interval grey numbers. The results show that the generalized whiteness of interval grey number on the bounded background domain has the static properties of the relativity, normality, unity, opposition, connectivity, justice and graduality; while on the infinite background domain and the infinitesimal background domain, the generalized whiteness of interval grey number has the above static properties except the graduality. On the bounded background domain, the generalized whiteness changes with the expansion of the background domain and the value domain, while on the infinite background domain and the infinitesimal background domain, the static and dynamic properties of the generalized whiteness of interval grey number are the same, it is not affected by the expansion change of the background domain and value domain, and the generalized whiteness of interval grey numbers is conserved. The research results not only enrich the grey system theory, but also provide a theoretical basis for the analysis and utilization of interval grey numbers. Related Articles | Metrics

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Exploring Death Population Prediction and Cemetery Planning in Chongqing amid an Aging Population: A Grey Forecast Model Based on Interval Grey Number  Huaan Wu, Yuhua Jin, Yinhe Xue, Bo Zeng, Hui Wang The Journal of Grey System    2024, 36 (3): 51-62.   Abstract （113）            Knowledge map    China’s population is steadily aging, contributing to the increase in the number of deceased people and the growing disparity between supply and demand for cemeteries. To provide theoretical support and data reference for cemetery planning, this study considers Chongqing, a city with a high rate of aging population, as an example to apply the interval grey number model to model and predict the size of the death population in Chongqing. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) The accuracy of the interval grey number prediction model in simulating the size of the death population in Chongqing exceeds 98%, indicating that the model employed in the study is suitable for medium- to long-term prediction; (2) The prediction results show that the annual death scale of registered population in Chongqing will range between 220 and 330 thousand from 2022 to 2030, with a fluctuating upward trend; (3) According to the size of the death population predicted, the cemetery market in Chongqing will experience a shortage of supply within 10 years. Therefore, in order to ensure a balance between the supply and demand of cemeteries in Chongqing, the government should actively promote the concept of green funerals and reduce the demand for cemeteries. Alternatively, it is also necessary to accelerate the planning and construction of cemeteries to avoid the predicament of people wanting to be buried without a tomb.   Related Articles | Metrics

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Grey Information Relational Estimation Model of Soil Organic Matter Content Based on Hyperspectral data Hong Che, Xican Li, Guozhi Xu The Journal of Grey System    2024, 36 (4): 56-68.   Abstract （109）            Knowledge map    In order to overcome the uncertainty in hyperspectral estimation of soil organic matter content, this paper aim to establish a grey information relational estimation model of soil organic matter content based on hyperspectral data and grey information theory. Based on 76 samples in Zhangqiu District of Jinan City, Shandong province of China, the spectral data are first transformed by the nine methods such as square root, first order differentiation of the logarithm reciprocal, and so on, the correlation coefficient is calculated, and the estimation factors are selected by using the principle of great maximum correlation. Then, according to the principle of increasing information and taking maximum method, the spectral estimation factors of each sample are sorted from small to large, and the grey information sequence is formed, and the grey relational estimation model of soil organic matter content is constructed based on the information chain. Finally, the estimation results based on different information chains are fused twice, and compared with the commonly used estimation methods. The results of the method in this paper show that the average relative error of the 12 test samples is 5.576%, and the determination coefficient R2 is 0.934, and the estimation accuracy is higher than that of commonly used methods such as multiple linear regression, BP neural network and support vector machine. The results show that the grey information relational estimation model using hyperspectral data proposed in this paper is feasible and effective, and it provides a new way for hyperspectral estimation of soil organic matter and other soil properties.   Related Articles | Metrics

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Memorabilia of the Establishment and Development of Grey System Theory  Sifeng Liu, Liangyan Tao, Wei Tang The Journal of Grey System    2024, 36 (1): 1-3.   Abstract （106）            Knowledge map    This article summarizes and records important historical events in the establishment and 40 year development process of continuing innovation and dissemination of grey system theory, providing reference for scholars who pay attention to the evolution laws of grey system theory, a new branch of uncertainty system research, as well as colleagues engaged in grey system theory research. If there are any important omissions, we sincerely welcome readers to supplement and improve.  Related Articles | Metrics

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Prediction and Analysis of Agricultural Eco-Efficiency in Henan Province Based on GM-BP Neural Network  Bingjun Li, Wenyan Li, Yifan Zhang The Journal of Grey System    2022, 34 (4): 71-.   Abstract （105）            Knowledge map    The grey GM(1, 1) model is widely used due to its relatively simple structure, few parameters, easy training, and considering the grey characteristics of known information and unknown information. However, the GM(1, 1) model is weak in mining complex information, and it is difficult to deal with sequences with both linear and nonlinear characteristics. In response to this problem, the BP neural network is introduced, and the combination model of the GM-BP neural network is constructed by using the powerful nonlinear data mining ability of the BP neural network. And the GM-BP neural network is used to predict the agricultural eco-efficiency of Henan province. On this basis, the development trend of agricultural eco-efficiency in Henan is analyzed. The results show that the GM-BP neural network model can describe the complex changes in agricultural eco-efficiency in Henan and has a good prediction effect. The agricultural eco-efficiency in Henan from 2020 to 2025 is effective, with a continuous upward trend, but the increasing rate has slowed down. In space, the agricultural eco-efficiency of Henan shows the characteristics of gradually increasing from north to south, high in the east and west, low in the middle, and slightly higher in the west than in the east.  Related Articles | Metrics

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The Application of Adaptive Generalized NGBM(1,1) To Sales Forecasting: A Case Study of an Underwear Shop  Ssu-Han Chen, Guo-Wei Chen, Yi-Ching Liaw, Jin-Kwan Lin, Shang-En Hsu The Journal of Grey System    2022, 34 (4): 130-.   Abstract （105）            Knowledge map    This study develops a model to predict the weekly sales of an underwear shop in New Taipei City, Taiwan. Most commonly employed prediction methods failed when applied to the sales patterns of the case company and could not create an appropriate ordering strategy. This study is based on the assumption that the choice of a predictive model may need to be matched to the fluctuation structure of the data sequence. Not all data sequences are suitable for a single prediction model. An adaptive generalized Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli Model (NGBM(1,1)) is proposed for the case company. The training data sequences are fed into an Adaptive Resonance Theory 2 (ART2) model to generate typical templates. Simultaneously, the generalized NGBM(1,1) model is associated with the Real-valued Genetic Algorithm (RGA) to identify the best hyper-parameters for each training data sequence. The relationships between the typical templates and the 24 model types are mapped. In the testing stage, each data sequence is allocated to the most similar typical template using ART2 and mapped to the corresponding suitable model type, which makes a one-step-ahead prediction. The four-year weekly sales data of an underwear shop were empirically analyzed. The proposed method was compared with traditional prediction models. The experimental results show that the proposed method can provide more precise predictions.  Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on China's GDP Growth Forecast Based on Grey Machine Learning Model Tianxiang Yao, Xichun Liu The Journal of Grey System    2024, 36 (4): 1-13.   Abstract （103）            Knowledge map    Based on Keynesian macroeconomic theory, this paper introduces economic indicators with Chinese characteristics, and constructs a multivariate grey machine learning forecasting model (IGM (1, N, X1 (0) )-IPSO-LSTM) to predict China's GDP growth. Firstly, IGM (1, N) model is constructed by changing the background value construction method of GM (1, N) model and introducing grey action constant A which reflects the change from the grey differential equation to the difference equation. Secondly, due to the low frequency and small amount of GDP data, constructing a two-layer LSTM model to increase the model complexity, so that the data can be fully trained. In addition, this paper uses nonlinear descending function instead of w to construct Improved Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (IPSO), and adds Genetic Algorithm (GA) to IPSO to reduce the risk of particles falling into the local optimal solution. Finally, using IPSO to find the optimal parameters of LSTM model to predict China's GDP growth. By comparing the prediction accuracy of IGM (1, N, X1 (0) )-IPSO-LSTM model with other benchmark models, the prediction result of IGM (1, N, X1 (0) )-IPSO-LSTM model is the best. It is predicted that China's GDP growth rate in 2024 is 5.18% and in 2025 is 5.12%. By analyzing the trend development of China's economic, it is found that the forecast results are consistent with the expected trend of macro economy, which increases the credibility of the forecast results.   Related Articles | Metrics

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Security Risk Assessment for Trusted Chain Optimizing Based on Grey Fixed Weight Clustering Guna Duan , Lizhong Duan , Wenan Zhou The Journal of Grey System    2022, 34 (4): 147-.   Abstract （96）            Knowledge map    Trusted computing has received further attention as an effective technique to safeguard information systems, and it has been widely applied in various fields. Trusted chain establishment, as an essential model of trusted computing technology which ensures the credibility of computing platform, still brings poor system efficiency due to the complex environment of the platform. To optimize the procedure of trusted chain establishment for trusted computing platforms, our research improved traditional trusted chain establishment from static to dynamic with additional security risk level assessment step during trusted chain establishment innovatively. First, we comprehensively analyzed threats and their source for platforms. Based on main indicators of the platform, fixed weight clustering evaluation method in the grey system theory was used to evaluate security risk level for platforms. With the recorded data of software and hardware changes for the platform, we assessed the security risk level for this platform and demonstrated the clustering results and improved measurement strategy for platform during trusted chain establishment. It is more systematic and more efficient than the traditional static trusted chain establishment method, which could find more files tampered during measurement procedure. Related Articles | Metrics

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Adaptive Fluctuation Grey Model withAK Fractional Derivative for Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction Quntao Fu, Shuhua Mao The Journal of Grey System    2023, 35 (4): 108-131.   Abstract （93）            Knowledge map    Short-term traffic flow prediction is an essential component of intelligent transportation systems. Shallow and deep pattern learning methods have been widely applied to short-term traffic flow prediction. However, shallow learning methods struggle with highly volatile data and models are usually constant-coefficient. On the other hand, deep learning methods require significant computational resources and time. In this paper, we propose a new adaptive fluctuation grey model for short-term traffic flow prediction. We combine the fractional differential equation and fractional accumulation generation operator, and expand the GM(1,1) model using trigonometric functions. Furthermore, we improve the Harris hawks algorithm by optimizing the distribution of the initial population with Cauchy mutation operator and introducing boundary constraint handling techniques to enhance the model parameter search capability. Finally, we apply the model to short-term traffic flow parameter prediction and compare it with the benchmark model. Results indicate that the new model shows better accuracy performance and better extraction of fluctuation information.  Related Articles | Metrics